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The pick-up is seen in most of the items, most importantly in gasoline (up from 4.1% YoY to 5.2% YoY, the highest rate since April 2019) despite the price control mechanisms in place. Non-food CPI kept accelerating from 5.7% YoY to 5.9% YoY despite the higher base effect.The bad news, however, is that the recent administrative price control actions can lower the food price sensitivity in both directions. The good news is that the global context of agricultural prices is improving (Figure 1). There were also some exceptions, such as meat and fish, where price growth continued accelerating. Food CPI slowed down modestly from 7.7% YoY in February to 7.6% YoY in March, mainly on the higher base effect.On the negative side, we note continued acceleration in prices for most of the non-food products, which could flatten the downward slope of CPI from now on, and can be interpreted by the Bank of Russia as supportive of their positive take on the strength of the consumer recovery. On the positive side, the annual inflation rate seems to have peaked, and is likely to go down from here, helped by the stabilisation in the global prices for key agricultural items in March, and by the higher base effect for local CPI, that will be gaining importance starting from now, as inflation picked up by 3.2 percentage points in the last 12 months.
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There are both positive and negative observations from the data and context. Russian CPI was reported at 5.8% year-on-year in March, up from February's 5.7% YoY, in line with the market consensus.
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